Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade in 2025 and what they mean for payment risk

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What the latest annual trade ranking shows

The latest annual WTO-UNCTAD ranking of the leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade covers 2025 and was published in the WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released in March 2026. China remained the largest merchandise exporter, with US$3.772 trillion in goods exports and a 14.4% world share. The United States was the largest merchandise importer, with US$3.507 trillion in goods imports and a 13.2% world share.

For companies managing trade risk and payment planning, the ranking is useful, but it should not be read on its own. Re-exports, intra-EU trade, currency values, tariff changes and sector concentration all affect how payment and delivery risk should be assessed.

In current US dollar terms, WTO-UNCTAD reported world merchandise exports of US$26.257 trillion in 2025, up 7% from 2024. World merchandise imports were reported at US$26.608 trillion, also up 7%. The two global totals do not match exactly because merchandise trade statistics are compiled from national reports and can differ by valuation, timing, treatment of freight and insurance, re-exports and reporting practices.

Why the ranking is not the same as production strength

The table ranks merchandise trade value. It does not rank domestic manufacturing output, value added or final demand. That distinction matters because a country can rank highly for several reasons: it may be a major producer, a large consumer market, a logistics and distribution hub, or an economy where a large share of reported trade is re-exported after transit, warehousing, processing or distribution.

China’s top export position reflects the scale and breadth of its manufacturing base, including machinery, electronics, consumer goods and intermediate inputs. The United States ranks second as an exporter but first as an importer, showing both its production capacity and its role as a large demand market. Germany’s third-place position on both sides reflects its role in high-value manufacturing, automotive supply chains, industrial machinery and European production networks.

For payment risk, the point is simple: a high-ranking trade market is not automatically low-risk. A buyer in a large importing economy can still face liquidity stress, customs delays or sector-specific demand shocks. A supplier in a leading export economy can still be exposed to sanctions screening, tariff changes, shipping disruption, foreign exchange pressure or documentation errors.

How excluding intra-EU trade changes the picture

WTO-UNCTAD also publishes a second ranking that excludes trade between EU member states. This matters because internal EU flows can lift the ranking of individual European economies, especially those deeply integrated into regional supply chains. When intra-EU trade is excluded, the world merchandise export total falls to US$21.579 trillion in 2025, and the import total falls to US$22.036 trillion.

On that basis, China remains the largest exporter, with a 17.5% share of world merchandise exports excluding intra-EU trade. Extra-EU exports rank second at US$2.985 trillion, followed by the United States at US$2.185 trillion. On the import side, the United States remains first, with a 15.9% share, followed by extra-EU imports at US$2.835 trillion and China at US$2.583 trillion.

This alternative view helps companies compare market access, tariff exposure and regional concentration. For example, Germany is a leading global exporter when countries are ranked individually, but much of Europe’s trade structure is regional. A buyer assessing supplier diversification should therefore ask whether it is diversifying across genuinely different customs, currency and logistics environments, or mainly shifting between closely connected European nodes.

Re-exports and trading hubs need special attention

Some high-ranked economies are major trading hubs. WTO-UNCTAD identifies Hong Kong, China, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates as economies where significant re-exports or imports for re-export are relevant. Hong Kong, China reported US$754 billion in merchandise exports in 2025, but WTO-UNCTAD separated this into US$48 billion of domestic exports and US$706 billion of re-exports. Singapore reported US$567 billion in exports, including US$349 billion of re-exports.

This does not make these hubs less important. It shows why they are central to distribution, financing, consolidation, customs handling and regional market access. It also means traders should not treat the export value as if it were all domestic production. If goods pass through a hub, the commercial risk may sit in several places at once: the original producer, the intermediary, the logistics provider, the financing bank and the final buyer.

Payment terms should reflect that chain. If a contract involves a re-export hub, traders should confirm who owns the goods at each stage, which party is responsible for customs documents, whether certificates of origin match the buyer’s tariff requirements, and whether payment is triggered by shipment, delivery, inspection or resale. These details are especially important when using documentary collections, letters of credit, open-account terms or supplier credit.

What 2025 and 2026 trends say about trade risk

The 2025 ranking should be read alongside recent trade momentum. WTO reported that world merchandise trade volume grew 4.6% in 2025, faster than expected, while the value of merchandise trade increased 7%. The March 2026 WTO report attributed much of the resilience to demand for AI-related goods, even as tariff increases and trade policy uncertainty created pressure.

Short-term data available in 2026 show that trade growth continued but became more uneven. WTO reported on July 31, 2026 that seasonally adjusted world merchandise trade volume rose 1.9% quarter on quarter in the first quarter of 2026 and 3.2% year on year. In value terms, world merchandise trade was up 11% year on year in the same quarter. WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer released on September 9, 2026 showed a reading of 102.0, above the baseline value of 100, indicating above-trend goods trade momentum at that point. See also: Customs and Compliance.

UNCTAD’s July/August 2026 Global Trade Update also described strong but uneven growth in the first half of 2026. It estimated global goods trade at about US$13.7 trillion for the period, up 12.5% from the first half of 2025. UNCTAD cautioned that a significant share of that value growth reflected higher prices rather than only higher physical volumes, with energy, transport, logistics and selected commodity prices adding pressure.

For exporters and importers, this combination creates a mixed risk environment. Strong demand can support sales, but price-driven growth can squeeze cash flow. Longer transit times, higher freight costs or sudden tariff adjustments may change the economics of a deal after the sales contract is signed. Payment risk analysis should therefore cover not only the buyer’s credit quality, but also the shipment route, customs classification, insurance, currency exposure and the possibility of regulatory change during the transaction cycle.

Practical payment checks for major merchandise markets

When dealing with the largest exporting and importing economies, trade teams should avoid using country rank as a shortcut for credit approval. A stronger review combines market-level data with transaction-level controls.

• Check the counterparty, not only the country. Verify registration, ownership, sanctions exposure, litigation history and payment record before agreeing to open-account terms.
• Match payment method to risk. Advance payment may suit new or high-risk buyers; letters of credit may help where documentary control is critical; open account is usually safer with established buyers and credit insurance.
• Review Incoterms and cash-flow timing. Payment risk changes depending on whether control passes at the factory gate, port of loading, destination port or final delivery point.
• Confirm customs and origin documents early. Errors in HS codes, certificates of origin or trade preference claims can delay clearance and postpone payment.
• Stress-test freight and price changes. If margins are thin, a rise in shipping, insurance, energy or financing cost can turn a profitable shipment into a loss.
• Monitor policy-sensitive sectors. Electronics, semiconductors, electric vehicles, critical minerals, energy products and dual-use goods may face faster regulatory changes than ordinary consumer goods.

The most useful risk review connects three layers: the macro ranking, the sector trend and the individual invoice. The macro ranking shows where trade is concentrated. The sector trend shows where volatility may appear. The invoice-level review shows who must pay, when payment is due, and which documents must be correct before funds are released.

Sources and limitations

This article uses public WTO-UNCTAD annual merchandise trade data for 2025, the WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released in March 2026, WTO short-term trade updates published in July and September 2026, and UNCTAD’s July/August 2026 Global Trade Update. The ranking is based on merchandise trade in current US dollars, not services trade, trade volume, domestic value added or corporate export sales.

Readers should also note that 2026 annual rankings were not yet available at the time of writing on September 17, 2026. Short-term 2026 indicators show momentum, but they should not be treated as a replacement for a full-year country ranking. WTO indicated in September 2026 that an updated Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report would be published in October 2026.

Frequently asked questions

Who was the largest merchandise exporter in 2025?

China was the largest merchandise exporter in 2025. WTO-UNCTAD reported China’s merchandise exports at US$3.772 trillion, equal to 14.4% of world merchandise exports.

Who was the largest merchandise importer in 2025?

The United States was the largest merchandise importer in 2025. WTO-UNCTAD reported US merchandise imports at US$3.507 trillion, equal to 13.2% of world merchandise imports.

Why do global export and import totals differ?

Global export and import totals differ because countries may report trade using different valuation methods, shipment timing, freight and insurance treatment, re-export classifications and statistical adjustments. Small gaps are normal in international merchandise trade data.

Does a high export ranking mean a country is always a low-risk supplier market?

No. A high export ranking shows trade scale, not the risk level of every transaction. Payment security still depends on the counterparty, contract terms, documents, shipment route, sector restrictions, currency exposure and the legal environment.

Why does excluding intra-EU trade matter?

Excluding intra-EU trade helps separate Europe’s internal regional flows from trade with the rest of the world. This gives a clearer view of global external trade concentration and can change how companies assess diversification and market exposure.